Goldman's Hatzius Sees US Inflation Below 3% Next Year

The video discusses economic forecasts for June 2024, focusing on labor market rebalancing, inflation predictions, and funds rate expectations. It suggests that inflation may drop below 3% and the funds rate might remain stable between 5% and 5.25%. The speaker believes the market is overly aggressive in anticipating rate cuts, with a higher likelihood of rates dropping from 5% to 3% rather than increasing to 7%.

What baseline forecast does the speaker provide for the funds rate over the next year?

What are the risks associated with the funds rate forecast mentioned by the speaker?