Goldman's Hatzius Sees US Inflation Below 3% Next Year

The video discusses economic forecasts for June 2024, focusing on labor market rebalancing, inflation predictions, and funds rate expectations. It suggests that inflation may drop below 3% and the funds rate might remain stable between 5% and 5.25%. The speaker believes the market is overly aggressive in anticipating rate cuts, with a higher likelihood of rates dropping from 5% to 3% rather than increasing to 7%.

What is the expected inflation rate by June 2024 according to the speaker?

• Below 3%

• Above 4.5%

• Between 3% and 4%

• Exactly 3%

What does the speaker predict about the funds rate for the next year?

• It will fluctuate significantly

• It will remain between 5:00 and 5:25

• It will decrease to 3:00

• It will increase to 7:00

According to the speaker, which scenario is more likely regarding the funds rate?

• Increasing from 5:00 to 7:00

• Decreasing from 5:00 to 3:00

• Staying exactly at 5:00

• Fluctuating between 4:00 and 6:00

What is the speaker's baseline forecast for the funds rate?

• It will increase to 6:00

• It will decrease to 4:00

• It will drop below 3:00

• It will stay between 5:00 and 5:25

What is the speaker's view on the market's approach to rate cuts?

• The market is overly aggressive

• The market is unpredictable

• The market is too conservative

• The market is balanced