Need to Pick and Choose Your Battles in EM, Says JPMorgan's Cavenagh

The video discusses the current state of emerging markets, highlighting the volatility and potential positive signs such as US-China trade talks and expected China stimulus. It examines the impact of these factors on Asian currencies and the potential for a US economic slowdown. The discussion also covers the strength of the US dollar, its historical context, and its implications for global markets.

What are the key positive developments mentioned for emerging markets?

• US-China trade talks and Chinese stimulus

• European Union trade agreements

• Increased oil prices

• Rising interest rates in the US

What is one factor that could support Asian currencies according to the discussion?

• Increase in US interest rates

• Ramp up of Chinese stimulus

• Decline in global oil prices

• Decrease in European exports

What tentative sign is mentioned regarding the US economy?

• Growth in the technology sector

• Increase in manufacturing output

• Sharp slowdown in the Billy Fed survey

• Rise in consumer spending

What historical pattern is noted about the US dollar's strength?

• It strengthens when US growth is strong

• It only strengthens during US elections

• It always weakens during global recessions

• It is unaffected by US economic conditions

Under what condition might investors start moving against the US dollar?

• If US growth story weakens

• If US exceptionalism continues to rise

• If European markets collapse

• If oil prices increase significantly