Are China's Exports on the Rebound?

The video discusses the challenges in accurately forecasting export numbers for January and February due to seasonal effects and a low base from the previous year. It highlights positive factors like global sentiment and a weak yuan contributing to better forecasts. However, it identifies the US administration under Trump as a significant risk, with potential tariffs impacting Chinese exports and GDP. Goldman Sachs suggests targeted tariffs on competitive sectors. The video concludes with an overview of the trade balance and potential impacts of a US-China trade war.

What are the main factors contributing to the positive export forecasts for January?

• Higher consumer spending

• Government subsidies

• Global demand and weak yuan

• Increased domestic production

What is considered the number one risk to China's exports according to the transcript?

• Rising labor costs

• New US administration under Trump

• Environmental regulations

• Currency fluctuations

According to Goldman Sachs, what would be the impact of a 10% tariff on Chinese exports?

• Increase by 5%

• No change

• Decrease by 25%

• Increase by 10%

What is the expected change in the US-China trade balance for January?

• Increase by $8 billion

• Remain the same

• Decrease by $5 billion

• Decrease by $10 billion

What was the US-China trade deficit in 2016?

• $250 billion

• $347 billion

• $300 billion

• $400 billion