Shepherdson: Adding Stimulus to Base for Inflation Shock

The transcript discusses economic growth projections under Trump's administration, focusing on GDP expectations and the potential impact of stimulus. It highlights recent economic improvements unrelated to Trump, such as the recovery from falling capital spending in the oil sector. The conversation shifts to potential inflation issues and market surprises, noting the current economic conditions of low unemployment and rising wages. The discussion concludes with the implications of tax cuts and increased spending, which deviate from typical economic prescriptions at this stage of the cycle.

What was the GDP growth model mentioned for Trump's administration?

• 3.2%

• 5%

• 4%

• 4.9%

What recent change in the economy is noted as not being related to Trump or stimulus expectations?

• Rise in oil prices

• Decrease in unemployment

• Increase in consumer spending

• Reduction in capital spending drag

What is identified as a potential problem for the next year?

• Stagnant wage growth

• Inflation acceleration

• Rising unemployment

• Decreasing GDP

What is the current unemployment rate mentioned before any policy changes?

• 3.2%

• 4%

• 5%

• 4.9%

What is the unusual economic measure being considered for political reasons?

• Interest rate hikes

• Tax increases

• Tax cuts and spending increases

• Reduction in government spending