Bayes' Rule Quiz

Who is credited with the initial discussion of Bayes' Rule?

• Pierre-Simon Laplace

• Alan Turing

• Thomas Bayes

• Carl Friedrich Gauss

Tags

CCSS.HSS.CP.B.7

What is Bayes' Rule used for?

• Determining the unconditional probability of an event

• Determining the conditional probability of an event happening given that another event has already occurred

• Calculating the sample space of all possible events

• Predicting the frequency of an event based on a dice role

Tags

CCSS.HSS.CP.B.6

According to Bayes' Rule, what does the probability of an event A occurring, after seeing the sample information, represent?

• The ratio of seeing sample information s when A is true to the chances of seeing s when A is false

• The ratio of seeing sample information s when A is false to the chances of seeing s when A is true

• The ratio of seeing sample information s when A is true to the chances of seeing s whether or not A is true

• The ratio of the probability of A occurring to the probability of B occurring

Tags

CCSS.HSS.CP.B.6

What is the optimal procedure for using Bayes' Rule?

• Using prior information to dismiss new information

• Using new information to update prior probability distributions

• Using prior information, together with new information, to draw probability conclusions

• Ignoring prior information and focusing solely on new information

Tags

CCSS.HSS.MD.B.6

CCSS.HSS.MD.B.7

What issue did Grether (1980) identify in Kahneman and Tversky's research?

• Confirmation bias and overconfidence

• Deception, lack of motivation, and representativeness bias

• Sampling bias and selection effects

• Anchoring bias and adjustment difficulties

Tags

CCSS.RL.5.6

What does the representativeness bias result from?

• The tendency to assign low probabilities when a sample is not representative of the population for a certain event

• The tendency to assign high probabilities when a sample appears to be representative of the population for a certain event

• The ability to accurately predict the outcome of an event based on a large sample size

• The use of Bayes' Rule in all types of probability assessments

According to the experiment, what is the Bayes Rule Prediction of the probability of cup A being selected after 4 consecutive blue draws ( B B B B )?

• 6%

• 94%

• 0%

• 33%

Tags

CCSS.HSS.CP.B.6

What type of selection probes did Grether use in his approach to the incentive problem?

• A binary selection between cup A and cup B

• A multiple-choice quiz

• A probability assessment

• A written explanation

Who developed the BDM Method?

• Nash and Selten

• Becker, DeGroot, and Marschak

• Smith and Wilson

• Harsanyi and Selten

Tags

CCSS.HSS.MD.B.6

CCSS.HSS.MD.B.7

What does the BDM Method ask subjects to report?

• Their personal information

• Probability (out of 100) that a certain event will happen

• The outcome of a dice roll

• Their preference for a cup selection