Mods 4 & 5 READING GUIDE

Three roadblocks to ​ (a)   - ​ (b)   , ​ (c)   , and ​ (d)   in random events - help illustrate why we cannot rely solely on ​ (e)   .

• critical thinking
• hindsight bias
• overconfidence
• perceiving patterns
• common sense

___________ bias (also known as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon)

Rather, ​ (a)   describes, after the fact, what ​ (b)   happened better than it ​ (c)   what ​ (d)   happen.

• common sense
• has
• predicts
• will

Is Boston (MA) north or south of Paris, France? NO LOOKING IT UP!

• North

• South

• They are the same

For most people, a random, unpredictable world is __________

Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events tempt us to _____________ the value of common-sense thinking.

a carefully worded statement of the exact procedures used in a research study. (two words)

Match the following

• hypothesis

• an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events

• theory

• repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding can be reproduced

• correlational methods

• a carefully worded statement of the exact procedures used in a research study

• operational definition

• associate different factors or variables

• replication

• a testable prediction

Match the following

• case studies

• in-depth analyses of individuals or groups

• surveys

• recording the natural behavior of many individuals

• naturalistic observation

• asking people questionsq

Both in our everyday lives and in science, ___________ information can lead to mistaken judgments and false conclusions.