What are scenarios

Scenarios are:

• stories we just make up

• myths about the future driven by critical uncertainties

• extrapolations of current geopolitical situations

• a set of related stories about the future the derive from the same critical uncertainties

Creating goods scenarios requires

• linear thinking

• divergent thinking

• convergent thinking

• daydreaming

If you wait too long to think about the future, you will likely

• better understand the questions you need to ask

• find a fresher perspective

• miss opportunities and experience negative impacts

• not understand what is going on

Our class scenarios are

• Scenarios with a "Big S"

• Scenarios with a "Small S"

Scenarios create

• a definitive answer to what the future will look like

• an imaginative playground

• their narratives based on their structure

• a placeholder for additional research

Scenarios, in their purest form, are intended to

• give people a way to contemplate the future

• inform strategic action under uncertain conditions

• a framework for deep, ongoing analysis of trends

The name of a scenario should

• be cute and fanciful

• represent its core characteristics

• leverage popular culture to better connect the scenario ideas

• be as dry and matter-of-fact as possible

Select which elements are common in scenario narratives

• evocative language

• characters

• interesting situations

• academically phrased analysis

At least one of the scenarios will become the future

• True

• False

Scenarios need to

• remain fixed and immutable reference points

• Continue to evolve as the future unfolds

• deliver only meaningful answers

• predict the future