Quiz 1: Vocab Quiz

A focal question acts as an...

• a bridge and a wall

• an anchor and a fence

• a hope and a dream

• a way to scope work for clients

Focal questions should be

• Deep, expansive overviews of the search space

• A few concise words to frame the scenario space

• A paragraph or two that generally cover the search space

• Just the one right word

Scenarios help us (pick 2)

• analyze the past

• gain insights about what to do now

• model the future

• consider what we might need to do in the future

A black swan is

• a metaphor that describes a high impact, low probability event

• a large black water bird

• a surprise

• a type of cybercurrency

Emerging patterns

• are ripples of unintended consequences

• are the result of the two-slit experiment

• often die off but might change or replace an existing pattern

• help illustrate the uncertainties underlying scenarios

A forecast

• is the same as a prediction

• is a fishing maneuver

• states that something is going to happen in the future based on research and reasoning

• is usually right

Horizon scanning (pick 2)

• explores ideas, concepts and actions that will impact the future

• is what you will practice for the next 9 weeks

• requires binoculars

• generates a database of trends

A scenario is plausible when

• Everybody thinks its about right

• When it predicts something about the future

• underlying assumptions and internal logic connect combine to create the narrative

• It fits at least some people's assumptions about the future

Probability expresses (pick 2)

• where you should place a bet

• the likelihood something will happen

• random numbers that keep uncertainty uncertian

• that you have a 1-in-4 chance of getting this question correct if you just guess

Pick a driving force

• Annual disease outbreaks

• The strength of the Chinese economy

• Apple's iPhone roadmap

• The type of music on the Hot 100