Hedgehogs and Foxes: Understanding Prediction and Risk

What is the main difference between hedgehogs and foxes according to Isaiah Berlin's essay?

• Hedgehogs are more aggressive, while foxes are passive.

• Hedgehogs know many things, while foxes know one big thing.

• Hedgehogs focus on one big idea, while foxes adapt to changes.

• Hedgehogs are more social, while foxes are solitary.

What did Philip Tetlock's experiments reveal about the prediction abilities of hedgehogs and foxes?

• Foxes are better predictors than hedgehogs.

• Hedgehogs are better predictors than foxes.

• Both hedgehogs and foxes are equally good at predicting.

• Neither hedgehogs nor foxes are good at predicting.

Why were hedgehogs particularly poor at predicting in their areas of expertise?

• They relied too much on others' opinions.

• They lacked sufficient knowledge.

• They were not interested in predictions.

• They were too confident in their forecasts.

Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of good forecasters according to Dan Gardner?

• Aggregation

• Overconfidence

• Metacognition

• Humility

What is the significance of acknowledging 'known unknowns' and 'unknown unknowns' in forecasting?

• It emphasizes the importance of considering uncertainties.

• It allows forecasters to ignore uncertainties.

• It ensures predictions are always correct.

• It helps in making absolute predictions.