Pimco's Fels Says Investors Should Prepare for 2020 Recession

The video discusses the potential risks of a recession, noting that while it's not an immediate concern, fiscal stimulus in the US could lead to overheating and a recession by 2020. Investors are currently focused on the flattening yield curve and trade war risks, which have kept yields from rising sharply. Inflation is a growing concern due to fiscal stimulus and shifting policies favoring labor over capital. While rising productivity could counter inflation, it's not the baseline scenario. Central banks, particularly the Fed, are expected to continue tightening policies, impacting the dollar and emerging markets.

What is the speaker's view on the relationship between productivity growth and inflation?

What are the implications of a stronger dollar for emerging markets as mentioned in the text?