Fed May Not Get Very Far Into Hiking Cycle: HSBC's Major

Fed May Not Get Very Far Into Hiking Cycle: HSBC's Major

Assessment

Interactive Video

Business

University

Hard

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The video discusses the complexities of forecasting, likening it to a Keynesian beauty contest where the goal is to predict collective expectations. It covers predictions for the 10-year Treasury rate, suggesting a reasonable estimate of 1.5% due to the Fed's hawkish stance. The speaker expresses skepticism about the extent of future rate hikes, suggesting that the terminal rate will likely remain low, around 1%, as the Fed aims to avoid policy errors.

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5 questions

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1.

OPEN ENDED QUESTION

3 mins • 1 pt

How does the speaker relate successful forecasting to the Keynesian beauty contest?

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2.

OPEN ENDED QUESTION

3 mins • 1 pt

What is the significance of the 150 point estimate for the 10 year Treasury going into next year?

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3.

OPEN ENDED QUESTION

3 mins • 1 pt

What challenges does the speaker mention regarding forecasting rate hikes?

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4.

OPEN ENDED QUESTION

3 mins • 1 pt

Why does the speaker believe that rates will not reach the levels of the last cycle?

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5.

OPEN ENDED QUESTION

3 mins • 1 pt

What does the speaker suggest about the terminal rate and its implications for the 10 year Treasury?

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