Goldman's Hatzius: US Recession Likely to Be Shallow

The video discusses the potential for a recession in the U.S., analyzing unemployment trends and the Fed's interest rate forecasts. It highlights the mixed signals from inflation indicators and the Fed's response to economic deceleration. The discussion also covers the Fed's communication strategy and its credibility in the market. Finally, it examines core inflation trends and the future economic outlook, suggesting that core inflation is likely to decrease over time.

What is the best guess for the trend growth rate mentioned in the text?

What are the two reasons mentioned for a likely shallower recession?

How does the speaker describe the current state of inflation compared to previous high inflation episodes?

What is the forecasted terminal rate for the Fed funds rate by the end of 2022?

What factors could lead the Fed to reconsider its commitment to fighting inflation?

What is the speaker's view on the credibility of the Fed in relation to inflation expectations?

What does the speaker suggest about the core inflation trend by the end of next year?