Pimco's Fels Says the Fed Is Getting Closer to a Pause

The video discusses the potential for the Powell Fed to pause rate hikes and the market's reaction to such a move, drawing parallels to Ben Bernanke's tenure. It explores the Fed's role as a de facto World Central Bank despite its national mandate, highlighting its impact on global markets. The discussion includes an analysis of recession indicators, with a focus on big data and quantitative models predicting a 30% recession probability. The video concludes with insights on the inverted yield curve, emphasizing the importance of long-term signals over short-term inversions.

What indicators are being monitored for signs of an imminent recession?

What does the inverted yield curve signal about the economic outlook?