BofA'S Qiao on China's Covid Policy

The transcript discusses the fiscal constraints faced by local governments due to reduced land sales and increased COVID-related spending. Despite these challenges, borrowing capacity is expected to prevent major issues. China's reopening strategy is anticipated to be gradual, with local governments having more autonomy. Consumption recovery, driven by restored consumer confidence and excess savings, is crucial for achieving a 5.5% GDP growth forecast. Employment is a lagging indicator, with income growth hindered by weak demand. Policy flexibility may lead to mixed messaging, but public education and vaccination requirements are key for recovery.

What fiscal pressures are local governments currently facing?

How does the speaker predict the fiscal deficit will change in the coming year?

What factors are expected to contribute to the recovery of consumer confidence?

What is the significance of excess savings in the context of economic recovery?

How does the speaker view the relationship between employment and economic recovery?

What role do local governments play in the economic recovery process according to the speaker?

What are the expected changes in messaging from media and authorities regarding COVID controls?