Three Must-See Charts About the Future of Interest Rates

The video discusses the recent Fed minutes and their impact on rate hike probabilities, noting a return to earlier market expectations. It explores market reactions, financial conditions, and the Goldman Sachs index, which equates changes to rate hikes. The shadow funds rate and its implications for the tightening cycle are examined, highlighting the need for alternative metrics due to minimal interest rate increases. Finally, the video analyzes inflation and core PCE data, questioning if the current deceleration meets the Fed's criteria for action.

How has the market's perception of rate hikes changed since the beginning of the year?

What does the recent Fed minutes indicate about the market's expectations for rate hikes?

What is the significance of the Goldman Sachs measure of financial conditions in relation to rate hikes?

Discuss the implications of the core PCE inflation data for the Fed's monetary policy.

What challenges does the Fed face in achieving its inflation target of 2%?