Wells Fargo’s Silvia Sees Elevated Recession Risk in 2018

The transcript discusses the role of interest rates as signals for future economic conditions, highlighting the potential for an inverted yield curve due to Fed rate hikes. It examines current economic indicators like rising auto delinquency rates and shrinking inflation gaps, suggesting caution. The influence of central bank policies on bond yields is analyzed, noting the difficulty in predicting future economic outcomes. Finally, potential recession scenarios for 2018-2019 are considered, comparing them to past economic downturns.

What economic conditions are suggested to be monitored in 2018-2019?

What challenges might arise if a recession occurs in 2018-2019?