Guggenheim's Minerd Predicts Recession in 2-3 Years

The video discusses potential indicators of a recession, focusing on the inversion of forward rates and historical trends since 2006. It explores two main causes of economic downturns: exogenous shocks, like the pandemic, and gradual economic erosion. The discussion includes potential spillover effects from China's property crisis and the challenges the Federal Reserve faces in balancing inflation targets with the risk of asset price collapse.

What historical context is provided regarding forward rates and recessions?

What example is given for an exogenous shock that could impact the economy?