BOE's Bailey Doesn't Forecast a Recession

The video discusses the economic forecast from last autumn, predicting a long but shallow recession. However, the economy has shown resilience, partly due to a sharp fall in energy prices in Europe, which helped reverse the terms of trade shock. The unexpected mild winter also contributed positively. The speaker emphasizes the need to monitor the situation closely, despite not currently forecasting a recession.

What was the initial economic forecast made last November?

• A long but shallow recession

• A quick economic recovery

• A deep and long recession

• A short and shallow recession

What factor is mentioned as contributing to the economic resilience?

• Rise in consumer spending

• Sharp fall in energy prices

• Increase in global trade

• Government stimulus packages

How did the fall in energy prices affect the terms of trade?

• It worsened the terms of trade

• It had no impact on the terms of trade

• It stabilized the terms of trade

• It reversed the terms of trade shock

What unexpected event helped improve the economic situation?

• A rise in interest rates

• A better winter than expected

• A decrease in unemployment

• An increase in exports

What is the current stance on economic forecasting?

• The forecast is unchanged

• No current forecast, but careful monitoring is needed

• The forecast is being revised upwards

• The forecast is very optimistic