What is the current probability of a recession in the US according to the text?
El-Erian Says US Stagflation Is 'Unavoidable'

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2.
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What challenges does the US consumer face in the current economic climate?
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3.
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How does stagflation affect the objectives of central banks like the Fed?
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What factors have contributed to the current economic situation described in the text?
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What does the text suggest about the Fed's response to inflation and growth?
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