Economists See US Recession Odds at 50% or Less: NABE Survey

The video discusses the changing perspectives of economists on recession odds, highlighting a shift towards optimism due to a strong labor market and decreasing inflation. It examines the Fed's tolerance for inflation and potential rate hikes, with a focus on the upcoming Fed meeting and market expectations. The video also analyzes inflation gauges and the Fed's response, and considers future rate cuts and economic risks such as El Nino and rising food prices.

What percentage of economists in the July survey see a 50% or less chance of recession?

• 50%

• 100%

• 71%

• 25%

What is one of the main factors contributing to the improved economic outlook?

• Higher taxes

• Rising interest rates

• Increasing unemployment

• Decreasing inflation

What is the expected outcome of the Fed's upcoming meeting?

• A rate cut

• A 25 basis point rate hike

• No change in rates

• A 50 basis point rate hike

What is the current level of the PCE deflator?

• 2.5%

• 4.6%

• 5.2%

• 3.85%

What external factor is mentioned as a potential risk to the economic outlook?

• Trade wars

• Oil prices

• El Nino

• Brexit