This Is Last Hike in the Cycle for RBNZ: UBS WM's Tan

The video discusses the market's reaction to the RBNZ's unexpected dovish hike, suggesting that the RBNZ is likely done with rate hikes for now. It compares the Kiwi dollar with the Aussie dollar, predicting the latter's outperformance due to better economic conditions. The focus is shifting from interest rate differentials to growth as the main driver of FX markets. The US dollar is expected to weaken as the Fed signals an easing bias, with market consensus leaning towards dollar weakness.

What was the market's reaction to the RBNZ's recent policy decision?

• The market was unaffected by the RBNZ's decision.

• The market anticipated a rate cut, causing a surge in the Kiwi dollar.

• The market was surprised by the dovish hike, leading to a Kiwi dollar sell-off.

• The market expected a dovish stance and reacted calmly.

Why might the Australian dollar outperform the Kiwi dollar according to the discussion?

• The Kiwi dollar is expected to strengthen due to RBNZ policies.

• The Australian economy has better trade terms and a more comfortable current account surplus.

• The Australian dollar has a higher interest rate.

• The Australian dollar is pegged to the US dollar.

What is the expected shift in focus for global currency markets as central banks near the end of their hiking cycles?

• A focus on currency pegs and fixed exchange rates.

• A shift from interest rate differentials to growth drivers.

• A focus on which central bank will hike rates next.

• A shift from growth drivers to interest rate differentials.

What role does the Fed play in the broader movement of the US dollar?

• The Fed's policies only affect the dollar in the short term.

• The Fed's dovish stance weakens the dollar immediately.

• The Fed's hawkish stance has been a major driver of dollar strength.

• The Fed's policies have little impact on the US dollar.

What is the anticipated trend for the US dollar over the next 6 to 12 months?

• The dollar's trend is unpredictable due to market volatility.

• The dollar is expected to weaken as the Fed signals an easing bias.

• The dollar is expected to remain stable.

• The dollar is expected to strengthen significantly.