We See Dollar Bearishness as Stretched: MLIV Chat

The video discusses the unexpected deflationary trend in China, which contrasts with earlier expectations of a reflationary impact on the global economy. The US inflation print is analyzed, showing mixed market reactions and interpretations. The discussion highlights the lack of clarity in the data, with some seeing it as too sticky for Fed cuts, while others view it as a sign of a strong deflationary cycle. The global economic cycle is also debated, with a focus on potential dollar and yield bounces in the short term.

What was the initial expectation regarding China's economic impact after reopening?

• A decrease in mobility

• No significant change

• A reflationary impulse

• A deflationary wave

What was the general market reaction to the US inflation print?

• It led to a market crash

• It was seen as a non-event

• It caused a significant rally

• It was considered a major event

What was one of the mixed interpretations of the US inflation data?

• The Fed cannot cut rates

• The core inflation is not sticky

• The deflationary cycle is weak

• The Fed will definitely cut rates

What is the current sentiment about the dollar and US yields according to the speaker?

• They are expected to remain stable

• They are expected to crash

• They are expected to decline further

• They are expected to bounce back

What might influence the dollar and US yields in the coming weeks?

• Global trade agreements

• Fed communications

• European Central Bank policies

• Chinese economic data