Why Mike Wilson Is Sticking With Bearish S&P 500 Year-End Target

The transcript discusses market views, including a 12-month outlook and tactical views. It outlines target prices for the year-end, with a base case of 3900, a bull case of 4200, and a bear case of 3600. The speaker acknowledges timing errors in tactical trading but maintains confidence in the overall path. The discussion shifts to rate volatility leading to equity volatility, with concerns about banking stress leading to a credit crunch. The speaker emphasizes the likelihood of an earnings recession, which they believe is more severe than consensus estimates.

What is the base case year-end target price mentioned in the market outlook?

• 3200

• 3900

• 4200

• 3600

Which market's volatility is said to lead the other according to the discussion?

• Both markets are independent

• Rates market leads equity market

• Equity market leads rates market

• Equity market and rates market have no correlation

What is the expected outcome of the banking stress as per the discussion?

• Increase in equity prices

• Stable market conditions

• Credit crunch and potential rate cuts

• Decrease in interest rates without recession

What is considered more important than an economic recession in the final section?

• Interest rate changes

• Earnings recession

• Inflation rates

• Stock market volatility

How does the speaker view the consensus on the earnings situation?

• Unrelated to their view

• In line with their view

• More optimistic than their view

• More pessimistic than their view