Recession Inevitable by End of Year: JPMorgan's Michele

The video discusses investment strategies focusing on duration and market views, particularly in light of stress in the banking system. It explores the potential for adding more duration to portfolios, with a focus on two and five-year treasuries. The speaker predicts an inevitable recession by the end of the year, driven by central bank actions, including rate hikes and quantitative tightening. The discussion also covers the nature of the recession and the impact of central bank policies on the economy.

What is the speaker's strategy in response to the current banking system stress?

• Avoiding treasury investments

• Reducing portfolio duration

• Adding more duration to portfolios

• Investing in long-term bonds

By when does the speaker anticipate a recession?

• Next quarter

• End of the year

• In two years

• Mid-next year

What is the speaker's view on the severity of the upcoming recession?

• It will be a deep recession

• It will be a mild recession

• It will be a prolonged recession

• It will not occur

What does the speaker attribute the economic conditions to?

• Natural market cycles

• Central banks' aggressive tightening

• Global trade policies

• Technological advancements

What transition in central bank policies does the speaker mention?

• From quantitative easing to tightening

• From domestic to international focus

• From fixed rates to variable rates

• From long and variable to cumulative and lag