Emkay Global's Arora on Global Economy

The video discusses recent developments in the US Federal Reserve's rate hike forecast for 2023, highlighting potential economic impacts such as recession risks and labor market changes. It also examines inflation drivers, including CPI components like core goods and shelter costs, and their implications for the US economy.

What is the potential impact of the US Federal Reserve's rate hike forecasts for 2023 on market activity indicators?

• They will have no impact.

• They will remain strong as we approach February.

• They will cause a market crash.

• They will likely weaken significantly.

How might higher peak Fed rates affect the US economy?

• They will cause inflation to rise.

• They will have no effect on the economy.

• They will lead to a stronger labor market.

• They could bring a recession back into play.

What is one of the challenges faced by equity markets with higher Fed rates?

• Increased demand for risk assets.

• Higher profit margins.

• Reassessing soft landing assumptions.

• Stable inflation rates.

Which component of the US CPI has been leading the disinflationary theme but is now rising again?

• Shelter costs

• Core goods

• Food prices

• Energy prices

What is the expected trend for shelter costs in the US CPI?

• They will not affect the CPI.

• They will remain high for several more months.

• They are expected to decrease immediately.

• They will decrease rapidly.