Miller Tabak's Maley Sees Forward P/Es Below 15 Before Bottom

The video discusses the historical trends in bear market valuations, emphasizing that since World War II, bear markets have typically seen valuations drop to at least 15 times forward earnings. It highlights the extreme valuations seen in 2000 and 2007 and explains how leverage and the deleveraging process affect market dynamics. The transcript also covers the concept of forced selling due to margin calls, which can lead to market swings and further valuation drops.

What valuation level is typically seen at the end of a bear market since World War II?

• 20 times forward earnings

• 10 times forward earnings

• 25 times forward earnings

• 15 times forward earnings

Which years are mentioned as having extreme valuations?

• 1995 and 2005

• 2000 and 2007

• 2010 and 2015

• 1980 and 1990

What process is described as taking longer than just one year?

• Market expansion

• Investment growth

• Risk-taking

• De-risking and deleveraging

What can cause forced selling in the market?

• Low inflation

• High interest rates

• Strong economic growth

• Margin calls

Before the market bottoms out, what valuation level might be reached?

• Above 20 times earnings

• Exactly 15 times earnings

• Below 15 times earnings

• Around 18 times earnings