Goldman's Oppenheimer Expects More Volatility Near Term

The video discusses the potential impact of elections on markets, emphasizing the role of global uncertainty and risk premia. It explores the complex drivers of inflation, including demand from pandemic savings and supply-side issues, and questions the effectiveness of fiscal gridlock in addressing these challenges. The discussion also highlights the risk of a recession in the US, compounded by limited fiscal responses, and suggests that current market conditions may be a bear market rally with expected volatility.

How might elections contribute to market volatility?

• By adding to global certainty

• By ensuring stable political outcomes

• By reducing geopolitical tensions

• By increasing risk premia

What is one of the main causes of the current inflationary surge?

• Excess demand from pandemic savings

• Decreased consumer demand

• Increased supply chain efficiency

• Stable energy investments

What might be a consequence of political gridlock in Washington, D.C.?

• Disinflation due to reduced fiscal spending

• Resolution of long-term supply issues

• Increased fiscal largesse

• Immediate economic recovery

What is a potential risk if the US enters a recession without fiscal intervention?

• Increased government spending

• Immediate economic growth

• Decreased market volatility

• Limited ability to stimulate the economy

What is the current probability of a US recession according to the economist mentioned?

• 75%

• 10%

• 50%

• 35%