TD's McCormick Sees Significant Dollar Decline If China Reopens

The transcript discusses the potential impact of China's reopening on the US dollar, suggesting that a shift towards relaxing COVID-19 restrictions in China could lead to a significant weakening of the dollar. The analysis indicates that the dollar is currently overvalued by 6-10% in global markets, including G10 and emerging markets. If China confirms reopening with MRA vaccines, a 10-15% drop in the dollar is forecasted for the latter half of 2023. The discussion also highlights the possibility of a 5-6% drop in the dollar in the coming months if China reopens.

What is the current overvaluation percentage of the dollar in broad terms, including G10 and emerging markets?

• 10%

• 8%

• 6%

• 4%

What is the expected impact on the dollar if China confirms its reopening with MRA vaccines?

• The dollar will strengthen

• The dollar will remain stable

• The dollar will increase slightly

• The dollar will decline significantly

What economic condition is used to analyze the dollar's overvaluation?

• Inflation

• Deflation

• Stagflation

• Recession

By how much is the dollar forecasted to drop in the latter half of 2023?

• 20-25%

• 15-20%

• 10-15%

• 5-10%

What is the potential percentage drop in the dollar in the next few months if China reopens?

• 5-6%

• 3-4%

• 7-8%

• 2-3%