Goldman Sachs Hui Shan on China's 2022 Outlook

The video discusses China's zero COVID strategy and its implications on public health and the economy. It explores the economic impact of the Omicron variant, including potential effects on GDP and consumption. The discussion extends to liquidity demands and monetary policy adjustments by the PBOC. The video also provides an outlook on China's export and manufacturing sectors, highlighting the role of global demand. Finally, it addresses challenges in the property sector, focusing on deleveraging and long-term strategies.

What is a major reason for China's difficulty in changing its zero COVID policy?

• The absence of Omicron cases at the borders

• The lack of preliminary studies on Omicron

• The high transmissibility and large population density

• The low transmissibility of the Omicron variant

What is the GDP growth forecast for China in 2022?

• 3.5%

• 6.0%

• 4.8%

• 5.2%

How might the Omicron variant affect liquidity demand during the Lunar New Year?

• Have no impact on liquidity demand

• Decrease liquidity demand as workers stay local

• Increase liquidity demand due to travel restrictions

• Cause a significant rise in liquidity injections

What is the significance of the 7-day repo rate in the context of liquidity?

• It determines the interest rates for consumers

• It indicates the level of liquidity injections

• It reflects the government's fiscal policy

• It shows the demand for foreign currency

What is the expected growth rate for Chinese exports in nominal U.S. dollar terms in 2022?

• 10%

• 15%

• 8%

• 12%

What is a long-term goal for China's property sector management?

• Provide blanket support to all property companies

• Manage a soft landing by controlling leverage

• Encourage speculation in the housing market

• Increase the number of new apartments built annually

What is a key factor supporting Chinese exports?

• External demand

• Domestic demand

• Reduced production costs

• Government subsidies