Morgan Stanley Jonathan Garner: Cautious on EM and China

The video discusses the current state of offshore China markets, highlighting economic momentum and valuation adjustments. It examines the impact of regulatory changes and COVID-19 on China's market, particularly in the property sector. The discussion extends to sector preferences, with a focus on semiconductors and tech, and the risks associated with North Asian markets. Japan's market is analyzed for its structural improvements, while challenges in emerging markets due to the Fed's tapering and a strong US dollar are considered. Opportunities in oil-exporting countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, as well as Indonesia's market potential, are explored. Finally, India's market valuation and the shift in investor perspectives post-pandemic are discussed.

What is one of the main challenges facing big-cap internet companies in China?

• High inflation rates

• Regulatory changes

• Lack of consumer interest

• Currency devaluation

Why is there a cautious outlook on semiconductors in Korea and Taiwan?

• Double and triple ordering

• Political instability

• High production costs

• Lack of innovation

What makes Japan a favorable market according to the discussion?

• Strong currency

• Structural improvement in profitability

• High inflation

• High volatility

How does the Fed's tapering impact emerging markets?

• Weakens the US dollar

• Increases foreign investments

• Creates headwinds for markets with current account deficits

• Strengthens local currencies

What is a key reason for India's market valuation concerns?

• Political instability

• High valuation multiples

• Decreasing foreign investments

• Low consumer demand

What structural support is aiding the Indian equity market?

• High export rates

• Foreign direct investment

• Government subsidies

• Growing domestic mutual fund investor base

How is India's market perceived in comparison to China's?

• Less stable

• Equally volatile

• A potential match for growth

• More dependent on exports