TED-Ed: The infamous overpopulation bet: Simon vs. Ehrlich | Soraya Field Fiorio

In 1980, Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon bet on whether Earth's resources could sustain a growing population. Ehrlich, drawing from Malthus, predicted resource scarcity and famine, while Simon believed human ingenuity would prevail. They wagered on metal prices as a proxy for resource scarcity. Over a decade, metal prices fell, making Simon the winner. Today, the focus has shifted from overpopulation to equitable resource distribution and sustainable practices.

What was the main concern of Paul Ehrlich regarding population growth?

• Increased pollution levels

• Resource scarcity leading to famine

• Technological advancements

• Economic instability

What was Julian Simon's argument against Ehrlich's predictions?

• Population control was necessary for environmental protection

• Population growth would lead to economic decline

• Historical data showed no link between population growth and lower living standards

• Technological advancements would worsen resource scarcity

What was the basis of the bet between Ehrlich and Simon?

• The number of people who would starve

• The rate of technological innovation

• The price of five metals over a decade

• The level of pollution in major cities

Why was the price of metals chosen as the measure for the bet?

• Metals are abundant and renewable

• Metals are finite resources used in manufacturing

• Metals are directly linked to population growth

• Metals are easily affected by political changes

What is the modern understanding of the causes of starvation and famine?

• Environmental degradation is the sole factor

• Technological limitations are to blame

• Resource distribution is the main issue

• Overpopulation is the primary cause