Fed's Kaplan Expects Virus to Cause 'Substantial Contraction' in 2Q

The transcript discusses economic forecasts, predicting a significant GDP decline and a peak in unemployment rates. It explores potential recovery shapes, emphasizing the importance of fiscal responses. The impact on small and large businesses is considered, with a focus on demand and reconfiguration. Finally, it predicts changes in consumer behavior, highlighting increased caution and altered spending habits.

What is the expected range of GDP contraction in the second quarter according to the Dallas Fed?

• 10-15%

• 40-45%

• 30-35%

• 20-25%

By the end of the year, what unemployment rate does the Dallas Fed hope to achieve?

• 9-10%

• 7-8%

• 5-6%

• 3-4%

What is a major concern for small businesses post-crisis?

• Increased competition

• Higher taxes

• Lack of innovation

• Reduced demand

How might consumer behavior change after the crisis?

• Increased spending

• More cautious spending

• Less saving

• Higher risk investments

What is the main challenge in predicting the speed of economic recovery?

• Consumer confidence

• Government policies

• Transition from slow to fast recovery

• Business investments