TED-Ed: Can you outsmart this logical fallacy? | Alex Gendler

The video explores the conjunction fallacy using a scenario involving Lucy, a math major. It explains why people often mistakenly believe more specific scenarios are more likely than broader ones. The video highlights that the likelihood of a single event is always greater than the likelihood of multiple events occurring together. This fallacy is common in real life, affecting decisions and beliefs, such as in conspiracy theories and false news. The video emphasizes the importance of understanding probability to avoid such errors.

What is the main reason the first statement about Lucy is more likely to be true?

• It is more specific.

• It includes more details.

• It is less specific.

• It is based on her math background.

Why is the likelihood of a single event always greater than two events occurring together?

• Because single events are more common.

• Because two events require more conditions to be met.

• Because it is easier to imagine one event.

• Because people prefer simpler explanations.

What is the conjunction fallacy?

• A belief that two events are more likely than one.

• A tendency to choose the simplest explanation.

• A preference for detailed scenarios over simple ones.

• A misunderstanding of statistical probability.

How does the conjunction fallacy affect decision-making?

• It leads to more accurate predictions.

• It encourages logical reasoning.

• It causes people to rely on statistical data.

• It makes detailed scenarios seem more plausible.

In what context is the conjunction fallacy often used?

• In educational settings.

• In mathematical problem-solving.

• In conspiracy theories and false news.

• In scientific research.