This Is a Clear Supply-Side Shock to Oil, Says Nomura’s Subbaraman

The video discusses the potential for rising oil prices due to supply side shocks and the resulting economic impacts. It highlights the greater vulnerability of emerging markets compared to developed markets, with specific focus on countries like India, Indonesia, and Turkey. The discussion covers the effects on trade balances, inflation, and fiscal policies, emphasizing the risks of a vicious economic spiral. The video also identifies countries most exposed to these risks based on their oil import levels and economic fundamentals.

What is a key factor that can cause oil prices to rise, as discussed in the first section?

• Increased oil production

• Technological advancements

• Supply side disruptions

• Decreased global demand

How do supply side shocks in oil prices affect economies compared to demand-driven increases?

• They benefit economies

• They are less harmful

• They have no impact

• They are more harmful

What is one consequence of rising oil prices for net oil importers in emerging markets?

• Worsened trade deficit

• Higher fiscal balance

• Lower inflation

• Increased trade surplus

Which country is mentioned as taking action to stabilize its economy in response to rising oil prices?

• Ukraine

• Turkey

• Indonesia

• India

Which of the following countries is identified as particularly exposed to rising oil prices?

• South Africa

• Brazil

• Japan

• Canada