U.S., Global Recessions Likely With 25% China Tariffs: Economist Ahya

The video discusses the complexity of tariff discussions, highlighting the impact of global growth slowdown and reduced Chinese purchases on US commodity prices. It explores the potential escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, considering the risks of a 25% tariff on imports from China. The discussion suggests that such escalation could lead to a recession in the US and a global economic slowdown, with growth potentially falling below 2.5% by 2020.

What is one of the main factors affecting commodity prices in the US?

• Lower production costs

• Higher domestic demand

• China's reduced purchases

• Increased global growth

What is a potential outcome if trade tensions escalate?

• Increased global cooperation

• A recessionary environment

• Higher commodity prices

• Stronger economic growth

What is the base case assumption regarding the trade tensions?

• Trade tensions will escalate indefinitely

• Tariffs will be reduced

• A deal will be reached in three to four weeks

• Global growth will accelerate

What is the risk if a 25% tariff is imposed on all imports from China?

• Stronger US-China relations

• Higher global growth

• A recession in the US

• Increased US exports

What is the projected global economic growth if trade tensions lead to a recession?

• Above 3.5% year on year

• Below 2.5% year on year

• Stable at 4% year on year

• Increasing to 5% year on year