We Remain Constructive on our China Growth Outlook, Says JPMorgan’s Liao

The transcript discusses the economic growth outlook, focusing on stable growth in the second and third quarters despite mixed results in the first quarter due to Chinese New Year seasonality. It highlights the impact of fiscal and monetary policies, including tax cuts and data-dependent monetary policy. The analysis of new orders and export indicators shows optimism for recovery, although some subcomponents fell from March. The discussion concludes with policy implications, suggesting no immediate need for RRR cuts but potential adjustments in June or July.

What was a significant factor affecting the first quarter's economic performance?

• New fiscal policies

• Chinese New Year seasonality

• Increased export orders

• Improved employment rates

What is the expected impact of the recent tax cuts on the manufacturing sector?

• Reduction in export orders

• No significant impact

• Increase in manufacturing FAI

• Decrease in manufacturing output

Which forward-looking indicator showed a positive trend in March?

• New export orders

• Employment rates

• New orders

• Supply delivery times

What is the current status of new export orders according to the data breakdown?

• In expansion territory

• Significantly improved

• In contraction territory

• Stable with no change

What is the anticipated timing for potential monetary policy adjustments?

• April or May

• June or July

• October or November

• August or September