Recession Risk Is Pretty Low, Says JPMorgan Asset Management’s Schowitz

The video discusses various factors influencing markets, including EU Brexit talks, ECB and Fed minutes, and IMF forecasts. It highlights the importance of US earnings season over macro data. The economic outlook is described as tricky, with central banks easing and recession risks being overestimated. Inflation data and its impact on Fed policy are examined, with a potential rate hike expected next year. US Treasury yields are projected to drift higher, with recession probabilities affecting current yield levels.

What is considered more significant for market movements than macroeconomic data according to the discussion?

• ECB minutes

• IMF forecasts

• US earnings season

• EU Brexit talks

How does the economic environment appear according to the discussion?

• Robust and growing

• Mediocre and lackluster

• Booming with high growth

• In recession

What is JP Morgan's stance on the current economic environment?

• Indifferent and neutral

• Cautious and reserved

• Pessimistic and fearful

• Optimistic and aggressive

What could potentially bring Fed rate hikes back onto the agenda?

• Stable growth data

• An uptick in inflation

• A decrease in inflation

• A strong US dollar

By the end of 2019, what is the expected range for the yield on the US 10-year Treasury?

• 1% to 1.5%

• 2% to 2.5%

• 3% to 3.5%

• 2.5% to 3%