Any U.S.-China Deal in March Won't Resolve Structural Issues, LSE Says

The transcript discusses the potential US-China trade deal, highlighting its limitations in addressing deep structural issues like state-owned enterprises and industrial policy. It touches on the role of Huawei in 5G discussions and the separation of trade agreement issues. The framework for monitoring trade policy and intellectual property compliance is compared to IMF programs. Political and economic incentives for both countries to reach a deal are explored, with potential impacts on markets and economies. The challenges of including currency manipulation in the deal and enforcement issues are also discussed.

What are the main structural issues that the US-China trade deal is unlikely to address?

• State-owned enterprises and industrial policy

• Currency manipulation and tariffs

• Intellectual property and trade compliance

• Consumer-based economy and capital markets

How is the US-China agreement similar to IMF programs?

• It provides financial aid to emerging markets

• It enforces strict economic sanctions

• It monitors trade policy and intellectual property compliance

• It focuses on currency exchange rates

What economic incentive does China have to reach a trade deal with the US?

• Increase in industrial production

• Decline in Chinese exports

• Expansion of state-owned enterprises

• Growth in the steel industry

What is the potential impact of a US-China trade deal on Chinese shares?

• Decrease in market value

• Increase in industrial exports

• Inclusion in global portfolios

• Reduction in consumer spending

Why is it challenging to include currency manipulation in the US-China trade deal?

• It is not a significant issue

• China has already agreed to terms

• Enforcement of rules is difficult

• The US does not prioritize it