Morgan Stanley’s Tan Expects Asia Exports to Moderate This Year

The video discusses the current trade dynamics between the US and China, highlighting that while a trade deal may not reverse the slowdown, it could provide support. The slowdown is attributed to reduced Chinese domestic demand, but policy easing measures are expected to stabilize the economy by the second quarter. Central banks are becoming more dovish, with potential rate cuts anticipated. Inflation has been lower than expected, with risks of deflation being monitored, particularly in relation to China's PPI numbers.

What is the primary factor driving the slowdown in Chinese exports according to the discussion?

• Chinese domestic demand

• US trade policies

• European market conditions

• Global oil prices

What is the expected trend for central banks in terms of monetary policy in the discussed region?

• Increase in interest rates

• No further monetary policy tightening

• Introduction of new taxes

• Expansion of quantitative easing

Which central bank is mentioned as having a greater risk of easing its monetary policy?

• European Central Bank

• Federal Reserve

• Bank Negara

• Bank of Japan

What has been the trend in inflation surprises in the discussed region?

• Surprising to the downside

• Surprising to the upside

• Stable with no surprises

• Volatile with frequent changes

What is the potential risk associated with China's PPI reaching deflationary territory?

• Increase in global inflation

• China exporting deflation globally

• Strengthening of the Chinese Yuan

• Rise in global commodity prices