Berenberg’s Pickering Sees 30% Chance of Hard Brexit

The video discusses the probability of a hard Brexit, highlighting a 30% chance and the potential for it to occur by default if no deal or delay is agreed upon by March 29th. It examines the political dynamics, including Theresa May's role and the impact of the new independent group on the Conservative Party. The discussion also covers market reactions, particularly the effect on sterling, and predicts various Brexit outcomes, including a semi-soft Brexit with different probabilities for each scenario.

What is the default option if no Brexit deal is reached by the exit date?

• A soft Brexit

• A hard Brexit

• An extension of the exit date

• A second referendum

How does Jeremy Corbyn influence the Conservative Party's stance on Brexit?

• He has no influence on the Conservative Party

• He leads the party towards a no-deal Brexit

• He encourages them to support a hard Brexit

• He acts as a unifying factor for the party

What is the potential impact on sterling if a hard Brexit occurs?

• Sterling will appreciate significantly

• Sterling will remain stable

• Sterling will have no change

• Sterling will likely depreciate

Which Brexit outcome has a 25% chance according to the analysis?

• A no-deal Brexit

• Theresa May's deal

• A second referendum

• A customs union plus single market for goods

What is the expected value of cable by the end of 2020 in a semi-soft Brexit scenario?

• 1.37

• 1.67

• 1.57

• 1.47