Julius Baer Sees Fed Hike in December, Three More in 2019

The video discusses the end of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle and potential recession risks. It highlights historical economic indicators, such as the 2:10 Treasury spread, and their implications for future recessions. The US economy's current state is analyzed, with a focus on trade and personal consumption expenditure. Inflation and labor market dynamics are explored, considering the impact of oil prices and job availability on inflation pressures. The video concludes with predictions for future interest rate hikes.

What historical example is given to illustrate a period when the 2:10 Treasury spread did not lead to a recession?

• The mid-80s

• The early 70s

• The late 90s

• The early 2000s

According to Mr. Claritin, what is the current state of the US economy?

• Facing a financial crisis

• Experiencing rapid inflation

• In good shape

• In a recession

What is the Federal Reserve's most watched indicator when it comes to inflation?

• Unemployment rate

• Core PCE

• Stock market performance

• GDP growth

What is one of the contrasting forces affecting inflation mentioned in the third section?

• Rising housing prices

• Increasing government debt

• Oil price collapse

• Decreasing consumer confidence

How many rate hikes does the House of Julius Baer predict for the next year?

• Four

• Three

• Two

• One