Morgan Stanley Looks to EM for 2019 as U.S. Slows

The video discusses the economic outlook for Europe and the US, highlighting the potential for Europe to outperform the US in 2019. It examines the volatility in European bond spreads and the impact of political uncertainties in Italy and the UK. The US economy is expected to slow down, with a potential pause in Fed rate hikes, affecting the dollar and emerging markets. The risk of a US recession is considered, with a focus on market dynamics and the deceleration of earnings growth.

What is the expected economic trend for Europe compared to the US in the coming year?

• Europe is expected to outperform the US.

• Europe is expected to underperform the US.

• The US is expected to outperform Europe.

• Both Europe and the US are expected to perform equally.

What is the anticipated impact of the US economic slowdown on Federal Reserve rate hikes?

• The Fed will cut rates immediately.

• The Fed will pause rate hikes after June.

• The Fed will not change its rate hike plans.

• The Fed will increase rates more aggressively.

How is the US dollar expected to react to the economic slowdown?

• The dollar is expected to strengthen.

• The dollar is expected to weaken.

• The dollar is expected to remain stable.

• The dollar's reaction is unpredictable.

What is the estimated probability of a US recession next year according to economists?

• One in two

• One in ten

• One in three

• One in five

What is the expected change in S&P 500 earnings growth next year?

• Decrease to 10%

• Decrease to 4%

• Increase to 30%

• Remain at 25%