U.S. Markets Are Very, Very Nervous, Says Berenberg's Pickering

The video discusses the probability of a recession in the U.S., comparing historical prediction accuracy with current economic conditions. It highlights the potential for a slowdown, driven by political factors, despite strong fundamentals. The Federal Reserve's past reactions to market conditions are analyzed, with a focus on current market trends and future expectations. The video concludes with potential actions the Fed might take, considering market stability and economic growth.

What percentage of recessions in 2009 were correctly predicted by consensus the year before?

• 29%

• 49%

• 60%

• 100%

Which event is NOT mentioned as a past reaction of the Federal Reserve?

• Slow motion lift off

• Brexit

• Taper tantrum

• Debt ceiling standoff

What is the significance of the oil price in 2015 according to the transcript?

• It led to a recession in the US.

• It caused a global economic crisis.

• It was a precursor to strong spending in 2016.

• It resulted in high inflation rates.

What might cause the Federal Reserve to step back from hiking rates?

• Low unemployment rates

• Significant balance sheet problems

• High wage and price inflation

• Strong economic growth

How many times does the transcript suggest the Fed might hike rates after December?

• Zero

• Once or twice

• Three times

• Four times