Reasons to Rethink Fed Rate Hikes in 2019

The transcript discusses the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, indicating analysts' pessimism about the US economy. It explores the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, highlighting a shift from previous statements. The debate over the neutral rate within the Federal Reserve is examined, emphasizing the importance of data dependence and financial conditions. The impact of market tightening on policy decisions is also discussed.

What does the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index indicate about analysts' expectations?

• Analysts have been overly optimistic.

• Analysts have ignored economic data.

• Analysts' expectations are perfectly aligned.

• Analysts have been too pessimistic.

What was the initial expectation for the number of Federal Reserve rate hikes?

• No hikes expected

• Between one and two hikes

• Between two and four hikes

• Between three and five hikes

How did Clarita's statements differ from Powell's regarding the neutral rate?

• Clarita suggested the neutral rate was far away.

• Clarita agreed with Powell's earlier statement.

• Clarita did not comment on the neutral rate.

• Clarita indicated the neutral rate was close.

What role have markets played in the tightening of financial conditions?

• Markets have opposed the tightening.

• Markets have had no impact.

• Markets have done most of the tightening.

• Markets have only slightly influenced tightening.

What is the Federal Reserve's approach to financial conditions and data?

• Considering both financial conditions and data

• Only focusing on financial conditions

• Staying on autopilot regardless of conditions

• Ignoring financial conditions and focusing on data