BGC's Ingram Sees Fed Shifting Dots in 2018

The transcript discusses potential market shifts in 2017 and 2018, focusing on interest rate trends and predictions. It compares market and Fed views on neutral rates, highlighting the gap and its significance. The discussion also covers risk premiums, yield curve attractiveness, and potential risks in upcoming meetings, including possible adjustments in long-term rates.

What is the market's perception of a potential interest rate hike by the end of 2017?

• The market believes a hike is more likely than not.

• The market is certain there will be no hike.

• The market is unsure about any changes.

• The market expects a significant decrease in rates.

How does the market's view of the neutral rate compare to the Fed's view?

• The market's view is significantly lower.

• The market's view is significantly higher.

• The market's view is exactly the same as the Fed's.

• The market's view is more volatile but not significantly different.

What historical events are mentioned as causing large market reactions?

• The 2008 financial crisis and Brexit.

• The taper tantrum of 2013 and the presidential election.

• The dot-com bubble and the housing market crash.

• The introduction of quantitative easing and the eurozone crisis.

What effect does a lower longer-run dot have on the yield curve?

• It causes the yield curve to flatten.

• It makes the yield curve less attractive to investors.

• It has no effect on the yield curve.

• It makes the yield curve more attractive to investors.

How many dots need to shift to change the longer-run rate from 3% to 2.75%?

• One dot

• Two dots

• Four dots

• Three dots