Sterling Is Seen as Vulnerable to U.K. Vote

The transcript discusses the potential outcomes of the UK elections and their impact on sterling. The base case scenario is that Theresa May will return with a larger majority, which could lead to a short-term sterling rally. However, a strong Tory win might result in a harder Brexit, negatively affecting sterling in the long term. The discussion also covers the challenges of trading UK themes outside of sterling and highlights other global economic events, such as the ECB press conference and FBI testimony, that could influence markets.

What is the base case scenario for the UK elections according to the transcript?

• Theresa May will lose the elections.

• Theresa May will return as Prime Minister with a larger majority.

• The elections will be postponed.

• A coalition government will be formed.

What is the expected short-term reaction of sterling if Theresa May wins with a larger majority?

• Sterling will fall sharply.

• Sterling will remain stable.

• Sterling will rally significantly.

• Sterling will be unaffected.

What is the long-term forecast for sterling against the US dollar?

• Sterling will rise to 140.

• Sterling will rise to 150.

• Sterling will fall to 122.

• Sterling will remain at 130.

What is a potential consequence of a strong Tory win in the UK elections?

• Increased immigration.

• Immediate economic growth.

• A softer Brexit.

• A harder Brexit.

What makes trading UK themes outside of sterling challenging?

• Strict trading regulations.

• High volatility in global markets.

• Sterling's limited impact on other currencies.

• Lack of interest in UK markets.