AMP's Naeimi Says French Election Likely a Non-Event

The video discusses market sentiment and potential tail risks related to the French elections, focusing on the implications of a Macron or Le Pen victory. It analyzes market volatility, comparing it to past events like Brexit, and explores the potential shift in leadership from US to European equities. The discussion also covers the South Korean elections, highlighting the market's response to the likely victory of Moon Jae-in and the disconnect between the stock market and currency pricing.

What is the market's expectation regarding Macron's lead in the French elections?

• A significant event with high volatility

• A non-event with low volatility

• An unexpected event with moderate volatility

• A minor event with increasing volatility

How does the market view the probability of a Le Pen victory?

• Low probability with no market impact

• High probability with significant market impact

• Zero probability with no market impact

• Moderate probability with potential market impact

What is the expected shift in stock market leadership according to the discussion?

• From US equities to Asian equities

• From Asian equities to European equities

• From US equities to European equities

• From European equities to US equities

What is the probability of Moon Jae-in winning the South Korean elections?

• 50%

• 80%

• 60%

• 70%

How does the Korean stock market's reaction compare to the Korean won regarding the elections?

• Both show strong pricing for Moon's victory

• Stock market shows strong pricing, won does not

• Won shows strong pricing, stock market does not

• Neither shows strong pricing for Moon's victory