Carberry: U.K. Faces Risk of High WTO Tariff Wall

The transcript discusses the economic outlook post-Brexit, highlighting the unexpected growth despite initial fears. It covers the role of the Bank of England's rate cut and the pound's decline in supporting growth. Speculations on interest rate changes are explored, with economists divided on the timing of increases. The discussion also touches on Brexit projections, Article 50, and the potential impact of trade agreements. The importance of a transitional arrangement to avoid economic damage is emphasized. Finally, the inflation report and growth forecasts are considered, with expectations of higher forecasts despite ongoing challenges.

What factors contributed to the unexpected positive growth rates after the Brexit vote?

• Decrease in unemployment

• Rise in exports

• Bank of England's rate cut and pound's decline

• Increase in government spending

What was a common misconception among naysayers regarding the immediate impact of Brexit?

• The UK would increase its trade with non-EU countries

• The UK would see a rise in inflation

• The UK would immediately leave the single market

• The UK would experience a housing market boom

What is a potential consequence of a hard Brexit without a meaningful transition?

• Strengthening of the pound

• Immediate economic growth

• High tariff walls under WTO rules

• Increase in foreign investments

What is the best-case scenario for the UK during the negotiation of a free trade agreement?

• Immediate entry into the WTO

• Staying in the European Economic Area temporarily

• Permanent membership in the EU

• Complete independence from any trade agreements

What challenge does the UK face in negotiating a new free trade agreement?

• Decreasing import duties

• Increasing agricultural exports

• Reducing tariffs to zero

• Achieving the same market access as in the customs union