Shiller: Hard to Forecast at This Time in History

The video discusses the challenges of economic forecasting amid significant government changes, particularly under Trump's administration. It explores scenarios like the Trump boom and the impact of potential tax code reforms on the housing market. The discussion also touches on historical mortgage rates and their effect on housing affordability, emphasizing the complexity of predicting economic outcomes due to sociological factors.

What are the two scenarios discussed by the speaker regarding the economic forecast?

• A continuation of the current trend and a potential Trump boom

• A recession and a housing market crash

• An increase in unemployment and a decrease in GDP

• A rise in inflation and a fall in stock prices

What is one of the key factors that the speaker believes will influence the housing market under Trump's administration?

• Changes in the mortgage deduction

• Increased government spending on infrastructure

• Introduction of new trade tariffs

• Reduction in corporate tax rates

How does the speaker view the potential impact of cutting top income tax rates on the housing market?

• As a negative factor

• As a neutral factor

• As a positive factor

• As an unpredictable factor

According to the speaker, when was the housing market considered prohibitive due to high mortgage rates?

• In the late 70s and early 80s

• In the early 2000s

• In the mid-2010s

• During the 1990s

What does the speaker suggest about the current state of mortgage rates compared to historical levels?

• They are unpredictable and volatile

• They are slightly increased but not a major concern

• They are extremely high and prohibitive

• They are at an all-time low